A leading indicator may hold the answer to whether our economy is getting back on track or not. The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in June for a third consecutive month, which means the economy may be emerging from the worst recession in five decades.

Over the past few months we have seen less job losses, rising stock prices and stabilization in homebuilding and manufacturing. These are all evidence that government efforts to stem the financial crisis and lower borrowing costs may pay off.

So, is it time to start celebrating yet?  I mean we still have a jobless rate that is forecast to reach 10 percent and home values continue to fall.

“The numbers are signaling an outright turning point,” said James O’Sullivan, a senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. “The recession will end in the third quarter. We’re moving in the right direction.”